Welcome to Mastering the Midterms, a series dedicated to breaking down the data, trends, and shifts defining the 2026 political advertising landscape.
Political ad spending isn’t a straightforward game. Just when you think you have it figured out, the landscape shifts, budgets pivot, and voter attention moves across screens. In today’s omnichannel reality, campaigns aren’t just competing in one place – they’re navigating a fragmented media environment where streaming, digital, and linear all play a role. March was a perfect example of this dynamic in action, with some markets going dark while others caught fire. Let’s break down the trends.
The Kentucky spending spree
Kentucky is currently the hottest spot for political CTV ads, and it’s all because of Senator Mitch McConnell’s retirement. This is the first time his seat has been open since 2010, and it’s triggered an early and expensive spending war. According to AdImpact, the current primary ad spending and future reservations have already reached a staggering $52.7 million. To put that in perspective, this figure is pacing well ahead of past primaries; the total ad spend for the Kentucky Senate primary was $28.3M in 2022 and $33M in 2020.
In a crowded three-way Republican primary, where the winner is the heavy favorite for the general election, building name recognition ahead of the May 19 primary is everything. This is where the power of local becomes paramount, moving beyond statewide generalizations to reach voters in the specific counties and neighborhoods that will decide the outcome.
The Texas cool-down
While Kentucky is heating up, the national numbers declined in March, with a 45% decrease in political impressions month-over-month. The reason? Texas.
The Lone Star State held its primary on March 3, and as a massive, expensive media market, it accounted for a huge chunk of national ad spend in January and February. According to AdImpact, the Texas Senate made up 12% of political ad spending from January to February. With early voting starting on February 17, we saw a massive spike in impressions from final get-out-the-vote pushes. But once the polls closed on March 3rd, the spending slowed to a trickle.
This all goes to show that political spending moves in waves, not in a steady climb. It’s all about timing. While states like Kentucky are in a full-on sprint, many other campaigns are in a “dark period.” After a primary, the winning candidates usually go quiet for a bit. They’re busy pivoting their messaging for the general election and focusing on fundraising, not spending.
Key takeaways from March numbers
1. Precision during the crowded primaries: In a high-stakes, expensive primary like Kentucky’s, every dollar counts. CTV allows candidates to move beyond broad, traditional TV buys and target specific voter segments with precision. Need to win over undecided Republicans in Jefferson County? CTV can deliver your message directly to those households, maximizing impact and minimizing wasted spend. It’s the perfect tool for building name recognition exactly where it’s needed most.
2. Mastering the “on/off” switch: The sharp drop-off in spending post-Texas primary highlights the wave-like nature of campaign budgets. CTV is uniquely built for this rhythm. Its flexibility allows campaigns to ramp up spending aggressively during critical windows like get-out-the-vote pushes and then immediately scale back during strategic “dark periods”. This agility makes CTV an essential, efficient component of a modern omnichannel media plan, ensuring campaigns can be loud when it matters and quiet when it's smart.
3. CTV as the omnichannel anchor: These spending trends show why a single-channel approach doesn’t work. CTV is a powerful anchor in an omnichannel strategy. A voter who sees a candidate’s ad on their favorite streaming service can then be retargeted with complementary messaging on their social feeds and other devices. This creates a cohesive narrative across multiple touchpoints, reinforcing the message and guiding the voter’s journey far more effectively than a TV-only or digital-only approach.
Ultimately, navigating the midterms requires understanding the local battles that drive the results. The savviest campaigns aren’t the ones that spend the most; they’re the ones that spend the smartest. By leveraging the precision of CTV within a flexible, omnichannel strategy, campaigns can adapt to the natural ebb and flow of the cycle, ensuring their message reaches the right voters at the right time, no matter how the landscape shifts.
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