Learn More

Proof beyond the polls: Measuring real voter impact in a competitive Illinois governor’s race

The Challenge

Reaching beyond the party line

An Illinois Republican candidate needed to build name recognition quickly ahead of a competitive governor’s race. The campaign had two goals: 

  • Energize a core base of Primary GOP voters, Republicans, and Independents 
  • Expand awareness into broader audiences where the candidate had low presence

The campaign wanted to understand not just where ads were delivered, but whether the messaging actually resonated with voters. That meant measurement had to be built from the start.

The Solution

CTV strategy with statewide precision

Madhive ran a CTV-only campaign targeting zip codes across Illinois, with an audience strategy built around Primary GOP Voters, Republicans, and Independents. Over 30 days, the campaign delivered over three million impressions.

Alongside the media buy, Madhive integrated Upwave brand lift measurement, surveying exposed households against a matched control group to isolate the causal impact of ad exposure on voter perception. The study tracked six metrics: 

  • Aided Awareness
  • Ad Recall
  • Consideration
  • Familiarity
  • Favorability
  • Likelihood to support

The campaign focused on reaching voters in premium, high-attention CTV environments while measuring how exposure impacted voter perception across different audience segments.

The Results

Crossing party lines with measurable lift

The campaign outperformed platform norms on the metrics that matter the most at this stage of a race:

  • 1.7x lift in Aided Awareness
  • 2.1x lift in Ad Recall

Both are statistically significant, confirming the lift was driven by ad exposure, not noise. Consideration, Familiarity, and Favorability all trended positive.

Within the core target audience of Primary GOP voters, Republicans, and Independents, the campaign delivered exactly what it was built to do - and the impact extended well beyond the base:

  • 90% confidence lifted in Aided Awareness
  • 80% confidence lifted in Ad Recall
  • 95% significance in Likelihood to support among opposing party voters.

The campaign also broke through in markets that typically resist, large cities and the Chicago metro, where both Aided Awareness and Ad Recall lifted at the 80-90% confidence level, with additional movement in Consideration, Familiarity, and Favorability among urban audiences.

Among Democrats and past supporters of the incumbent governor, the campaign drove:

  • 95% significance in Familiarity
  • 90% significance in Aided Awareness and Consideration
  • 80% significance in Ad Recall and Favorability.

The campaign wasn’t just reinforcing existing support, it was increasing recognition and consideration among persuadable and opposing voter groups.

Among registered voters and those planning to vote, the campaign also achieved statistically significant lift in Aided Awareness, Ad Recall, and Consideration. The voters most likely to show up on election day were the ones the campaign reached and retained.

+1.7x

Lift in aided awareness

+2.1%

Lift in ad recall

Ready to see Madhive in action?
Get a demo